Cincinnati Reds keeping eye on Cuban phenom Luis Robert

PITTSBURGH – The Cincinnati Reds have already invested heavily in Cuban amateurs in the last year, with both right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez signing for lucrative bonuses last summer. Under the right circumstances, the Reds could be willing to dip into that pool again.

The Reds have been keeping an eye on 19-year-old Cuban phenom Luis Robert, a 6-foot-3, 205-pound outfielder who is considered the top international amateur player on the market. Robert defected from Cuba in November and has established residency in Haiti, a precursor to being declared a free agent under Major League Baseball rules.

“He’s very high-profile,” Reds general manager Dick Williams said. “I have no idea where the dollars are going to go on him. It could be that it quickly gets outside of our comfort level. But he’s a guy that we’re familiar with and have scouted in the past.”

Robert has played in the Cuban professional league, the Serie Nacional, since he was 16. He holds a career .311 batting average and .867 OPS. Last year, he hit .393/.520/.674 with 12 home runs in 52 games.

The only international player with more hype is two-way Japanese star Shohei Otani.

“He’s a physical specimen,” Williams said of Robert. “He has shown pretty well in workouts. There are definitely still questions about him. Any of those guys without a huge track record are going to have some questions.”

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Cincinnati is in a better position than most teams to sign him, but perhaps not the best. The Reds are one of seven teams with the most incentive to spend big on international talent before the current signing period ends June 15, although they’re not the team with the deepest pockets.

The key for the Reds – and for Robert – is the difference in the current international signing rules this period versus the next, which begins July 2. Right now, any team that goes over its international spending limit faces a 100 percent overage tax, but no hard limit. The Reds already blew past theirs to sign Gutierrez and Rodriguez, forfeiting about $7.5 million in penalties in addition to the $11.5 million they spent in bonuses for the two players.

Because they’ve busted, they will be limited to signings of $300,000 or less for the next two signing periods. That incentivizes the Reds to hand out big bonuses now, while they still can. Williams said the Reds are open to it.

“There’s no guarantee that we’ll do another deal,” Williams said. “Those are the kind of deals you look at if you got him at the right price.”

There’s some urgency for Robert, as well. If he’s not declared eligible to sign by June 15, his earning power will diminish dramatically. Under the new collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the players association, teams will face a hard cap when spending on international amateurs starting with the next signing period.

Depending on their market size, teams will have between $4.75 million and $5.25 million to spend in total on their international amateurs, which the league defines as players under 25 with less than six years of professional experience. For perspective, the Reds spent $4.75 million last year on Gutierrez alone.

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“Until he’s declared eligible, we have no idea what his bonus demands are or will be,” Williams said. “I’m sure his agents are trying to get him eligible now because of the system changing. So it’s in their best interest to get him out there now.”

While the new system will hurt Robert, it will only help the Reds. By suppressing the market for international talent, teams can no longer spend the equivalent of a major-league payroll on amateur players. Even with their bonus size limits the next two years, $300,000 will buy a much nicer player after July 2 than it did before.

The Reds can also trade their surplus space to other squads, and it’s about to become that much more valuable.

“Teams can’t just buy their way past the caps,” Williams said. “That’ll be interesting to see, how it levels the playing field.”

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