Dear Ohio. We found your hot Senate race - in Missouri

Dear Ohio,

If you’re wondering where your super-competitive Senate race went, try looking in Missouri.

All the national buzz and outside money once being showered on the Buckeye State? It’s now raining down on the Show-Me State.

“How the heck did that happen?” you might wonder. Missouri isn’t even a battleground state. And Ohio is the ultimate battleground state.

I’ve had a front-row seat to this bizarre turn of events, as a political reporter covering both states. Here’s my take on why Missouri and Ohio have traded places in the battle for control of the Senate.

First, Missouri Democrats got a more compelling candidate.

Think Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld — i.e., young and energetic, but with military experience on his resume and a successful statewide race under his belt.

That’s Jason Kander, Missouri’s secretary of state, who is challenging Missouri's incumbent Republican, Sen. Roy Blunt. Kander is a former Army intelligence officer who served in Afghanistan, a stint he mentions often.

In Ohio, Democrats were giddy when ex-Gov. Ted Strickland decided to challenge Republican Sen. Rob Portman. He entered as a proven fundraiser, with high name recognition and strong approval ratings. But he came with baggage — a long record in Congress and as governor — and his campaign has seemed lackluster.

When friends become foes: Ted Strickland's fundraising woes

That brings us to expectations ...

The Ohio race was expected to be a blockbuster. And Strickland was expected to raise millions of dollars, something he himself boasted about before he even officially jumped in.

So when Strickland didn’t meet those expectations, he helped unspool a narrative that his candidacy wasn’t living up to its billing. Portman’s strategists seized on that and nurtured it — labeling Strickland “low-energy,” a slight they borrowed from GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

By contrast, Kander benefited from low expectations. He was up against a seasoned incumbent and member of the Senate GOP leadership with wide name recognition and a proven political machine, in an increasingly conservative state. Few gave Kander more than a snowball’s chance.

So when the Democrat started raising big bucks, reporters and pundits went, “Whoa, check this guy out.” Suddenly Kander was driving the narrative.

Ohio Republicans got themselves a more aggressive incumbent.

Portman was tagged at the beginning of this election cycle as one of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents. He had low name recognition, despite being in public office for nearly two decades.

But he hired a savvy campaign manager, raised millions of dollars, and worked diligently to define himself in the most positive light possible — and to define Strickland in the most negative light possible. On that latter point, he had more than $40 million in help from conservative outside groups that made the Ohio race their No. 1 priority and saturated Ohio’s airwaves with anti-Strickland attack ads.

Meanwhile, because no one thought Missouri was going to be competitive, the outside groups mostly ignored it and Blunt seemed a bit lackadaisical. Take, for example, his decision to tap his son, a Missouri lobbyist, to be his campaign manager.

Andrew Blunt's lobbying work faces scrutiny as he manages father's re-election bid

In this anti-establishment political climate, that fed straight into Kander’s hands — and unleashed a cascade of stories about Blunt’s myriad connections to the influence industry. (It doesn’t help that Blunt is also married to a Washington lobbyist; his wife is head of government affairs for Kraft Foods Group).

So while Portman was busy addressing his weaknesses and exploiting Strickland’s, Blunt was, well, not really doing that — not with the same effectiveness anyway.

Then came the Kander ad seen round the political world.  

The National Rifle Association has been heavily involved in both Senate races, attacking Strickland and Kander as soft on the Second Amendment.

Strickland’s response has been tepid, in part because he has limited resources for TV ads and in part because he’s got a “mixed and spotty” record on gun issues, as the Democrat put it in one interview.

Kander, by contrast, decided to hit back hard at the NRA with one of the most effective and attention-grabbing ads of the 2016 election.

Standing in an empty warehouse, while blindfolded, Kander deftly assembles an AR-15 rifle — as he talks about his support for both the Second Amendment and background checks on gun buyers. And he mentions his service in Afghanistan, too.

Kander’s ad made national news, winning him tons of free media and drawing fresh attention to his campaign.

So where do things stand now?

With five weeks to go before the election, Missouri has moved into the coveted “toss-up column” on the Cook Political Report’s list of most competitive races, a well-respected nonpartisan barometer. It’s now regarded as one of a half-dozen that will determine which party controls the Senate in January.

The Ohio race started out as a toss-up, but in early September, Cook moved it to the sleepier “leans Republican” category.

“Portman has run a flawless campaign, and Strickland hasn’t been the aggressive candidate Democrats hoped for,” Jennifer Duffy, Cook’s Senate race expert, wrote in early September. “Strategists dismissed Strickland’s rocky term as governor, but it has proven to be a potent vulnerability, as has the Democrat’s shift to the left on issues like guns and coal. National Democrats planned to invest heavily in television during the final weeks, but have started to pull their money out, an ominous sign for Strickland.”

Here’s what Duffy wrote on Friday in explaining her decision to list the Missouri race as a toss-up:

“At 35, Kander presents a sharp generational contrast to the 66-year-old incumbent. Kander and his Democratic allies have been making the case that Blunt has been in Washington too long, and has in fact profited from his time in Congress where he spent seven terms in the House before winning an open Senate seat in 2010.”

For more on these two races and the battle for control of the Senate, check out USA TODAY’s poll tracker.