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Debate fact check: 'Devastation' in Ohio, as Donald Trump says?

Chrissie Thompson
cthompson@enquirer.com

In Monday night's debate, Republican Donald Trump sought to use Ohio to sell his economic policies over those of his presidential opponent, Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The problem? He described an Ohio whose reality is far more nuanced.

The claim:

"Look at Ohio, and look at all of these places where so many of their jobs and their companies are just leaving. They're gone."

The facts:

It's not really clear what time frame Trump was referring to, but we'll look post-NAFTA, since he referred to that trade deal shortly after this comment. The North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1994.

No one disputes that trade deals such as NAFTA have closed factories in the U.S. Ohio's manufacturing jobs started a steady decline in 2000 and have not recovered.

More than 1 million Ohioans worked in manufacturing in 2000. The figure hit 600,000 in 2009 and now stands at close to 700,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted data.

Still, other industries have picked up much of the slack. Overall employment in Ohio started to fall in 2000, plateaued in the mid-2000s and fell precipitously during the Great Recession. But it has steadily climbed since 2010. Around 5.5 million Ohioans now work, down only 2 percent from the state's employment peak in 2000.

The claim:

"You go to Ohio, Pennsylvania – you go anywhere you want, Secretary Clinton – and you will see devastation, where manufacturing is down 30, 40, sometimes 50 percent."

The facts:

If we look at the loss of manufacturing jobs in Ohio from 2000 to 2009, he's right: Ohio's manufacturing jobs fell 41 percent in just over nine years. The percentage is indeed stunning.

Still, if you look at the figures above, about overall employment in Ohio, "devastation" is in many ways a stretch.

But here's a little perspective:

First, for many Ohioans, the jobs recovery came too late. The overall number of people working or looking for jobs started to fall in 2007, which means many people gave up or moved away. That figure started to recover last year, which means more Ohioans have become hopeful about their employment outlook. Overall, the labor force has fallen just under 4 percent since 2007.

Second, the non-manufacturing jobs we've gotten in Ohio? They don't pay as well as manufacturing jobs do. The average goods-producing job in Ohio paid $56,495 in 2014, while the average service job paid $42,714, according to BLS data.

So if you're someone who dropped out of the labor force because you couldn't find a job, or you found one, but you took a pay cut, you'll tell a different story about the state's economy than the employment statistics tell.

Is that the norm for people in Ohio? No. But is it real, and perhaps devastating, for the people who have experienced it? Absolutely.

Throughout the debates, The Enquirer will fact-check candidates' mentions of Ohio issues.

Reporter Jeremy Fugleberg contributed to this report.

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