Donald Trump, John Kasich deadlocked in Ohio polls
WASHINGTON — Less than a week before Ohio's GOP primary, it's anyone's game.
Three polls out Wednesday showed Ohio Gov. John Kasich jostling for the advantage over billionaire Donald Trump in the Buckeye State. In one poll, from Fox News, Kasich led by Trump by 5 percentage points. In the other two, from Quinnipiac University and CNN, the New York real estate tycoon edged Kasich by 6 percentage points.
The polls come the day after Kasich finished third in Michigan's Republican primary – a state in which he had spent so much time campaigning he joked he "might have to start paying taxes" there. In Tuesday's other presidential primaries, he finished third in Mississippi and last in Idaho and Hawaii.
Kasich has banked the future of his presidential bid on winning Ohio’s 66 delegates. The state holds its winner-take-all primary on Tuesday along with four other key states.
The Ohio governor plans to barnstorm the state in the coming days, while Trump is planning at least three signature rallies in major cities, including a visit Sunday to Cincinnati. The efforts, combined with debate performances Thursday and advertising from both candidates, will help determine the ultimate winner Tuesday.
There is room for either candidate to gain ground, although Kasich would seem to have the highest upside: The Quinnipiac University poll showed 5 percent of Ohio voters are still undecided, and 27 percent said they could change their mind. In previous Quinnipiac polls in Ohio, Republicans have rated Kasich the most positively of any GOP candidate. And the Fox News poll released Wednesday showed 26 percent of likely Republican voters in Ohio said they would refuse to vote for Trump, more than for any other candidate.
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In the Fox News poll, Kasich led Trump 34 percent to 29 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. In the Quinnipiac survey, Trump had a 38 percent to 32 percent advantage, with the margin of error at +/- 3.7 points. In the CNN poll, Trump led Kasich 41 percent to 35 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 5 points. All three surveys made phone calls to likely Republican voters.
The two other GOP candidates in the race lagged well behind in all three polls, with 15 to 19 percent of respondents supporting Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 7 to 9 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. The two largely have abandoned Ohio, battling it out with Trump in Rubio's native Florida instead.
Kasich's campaign points out the Fox News poll was conducted entirely after last week's Republican debate, in which Kasich handed in his strongest performance of the primary season. Since the debate, the Ohio governor has seen a boost in some polls. His narrow miss at second place in Michigan -- better than what polls had indicated a week earlier -- appeared to come from momentum he gained after the debate.
It's all about Ohio
The close range of both candidates in the new polls could increase the stakes in Ohio, making it ground zero for the GOP establishment’s efforts to halt Trump’s momentum.
Trump gained ground on Tuesday with primary victories in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, according to results from the Associated Press. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the only other state in contention: Idaho.
If Trump wins in Ohio and Florida next week, that would put him well on his way to snagging the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination. But GOP leaders hope Kasich can defeat Trump in Ohio and move ahead to the next round of contests.
Like Kasich, Rubio is also hoping for a native-son victory that would slow Trump in his home state of Florida, which holds its primary on March 15. Ninety-nine delegates will go to the state's winner. But Trump appears to have a commanding lead there, with the CNN poll showing Trump winning 40 percent to Rubio's 24 percent. The Quinnipiac poll has Trump at 45 percent support, compared to 22 percent for Rubio.
“The effort within the Republican Party to stop Donald Trump from winning the presidential nomination appears unlikely to stop him from taking Florida's delegate-rich winner-take-all primary,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “But that effort might have a better chance of success in Ohio where Gov. John Kasich is giving ‘The Donald’ a tougher run for his money.”
Would Kasich win mean anything?
The Ohio Legislature’s decision to make this year’s contest a winner-take-all primary could prove critical to keeping Trump from receiving the necessary 1,237 delegates for the GOP nomination, increasing the chances of a contested convention this summer.
Kasich’s campaign is boosted by the endorsement of the Ohio Republican Party, which has lent people and resources to the Ohio effort as Kasich focused on other states. For weeks, the party and the super PAC backing Kasich have been contacting voters who requested absentee ballots, urging them to vote for Kasich. The most recent data from the Ohio secretary of state’s office shows roughly 118,000 voters requested Republican absentee ballots.
“We have the ball running free down the field,” party Chairman Matt Borges said, suggesting Kasich’s competitors aren’t putting the necessary time and attention into campaigning in the state. “Even if it’s a close election, I think Governor Kasich wins Ohio. That changes the whole dynamic of this race.”
Trump’s campaign says it has 10 offices, five paid staffers and thousands of volunteers deployed across the state. At two recent Kasich events in the state, Trump signs dotted the landscape outside.
Doris Schumacher, a storeowner in Republican-heavy Findlay, Ohio, said she’s choosing between Trump and her governor. Schumacher likes that Trump is a political outsider, but also says Kasich’s “calm, easy going, pleasant demeanor” appeals to her. But she’s skeptical of the $2 billion state surplus Kasich touts on the trail because taxes on her farmland went up last year.
But for Jon Calvelage, a coffee shop owner in Findlay, Kasich’s tenure in Ohio is proof that he’d be a good president.
“He’s the only one that I would put any trust in,” Calvelage said, noting Kasich’s competitors are “more concerned with fighting.”
Should Kasich win his home state, his climb to the nomination remains steep; he’d need to win well over half of the remaining delegates. He acknowledges his chances for clinching the nomination sit in the Republican National Convention in July — noting wryly that host Cleveland is an ideal place for such a battle to be waged. Such a scenario would mark a fresh round of chaos in the GOP contest, but Kasich doesn’t seem worried.
“I think it’s important, when you go to a convention, when you end up there -- which it looks like we will -- that it be a fair process. The delegates will be smart, and they’ll figure it out,” he told reporters recently in Michigan.
The Associated Press contributed.