For John Kasich, race rests on Ohio (Plus, he got an endorsement from Arnold)
COLUMBUS — John Kasich had his best debate of the presidential campaign season Thursday, then proceeded to finish no higher than third in Super Saturday primaries.
So, strategically, not much has changed: He needs a win in Ohio's March 15 primary. His campaign comes down to the next nine days.
The Ohio governor on Sunday held his first Ohio rallies in months, touting the endorsement of movie star and former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was in town for his annual Arnold Classic bodybuilding competition in Columbus.
“It’s important that in Ohio we not only send a message to the country, but we send a message to the world that … a positive message and raising the bar for our kids will win,” Kasich told a crowd of several hundred outside Columbus’ Franklin Park Conservatory.
“When he went into Washington, he kicked some serious butt. He was an action hero,” Schwarzenegger said. “We need John Kasich to be in charge.”
GOP debate: John Kasich pledges to 'reignite' U.S.
Kasich's push for an Ohio victory comes as the other remaining establishment Republican option, Marco Rubio, is sliding from relevance. Rubio also finished no higher than third Saturday and still has only two wins: Minnesota and Puerto Rico. He appeared to gain momentum two weeks ago from his mockery and attacks on frontrunner Donald Trump, but the same approach fell flat in last week's debate. And he trails Trump by nearly 20 points in his home state of Florida, which also votes March 15.
Meanwhile, the race is rapidly solidifying into a two-person battle between Trump and Ted Cruz, who picked up two more state wins Saturday. In the overall race for delegates, Trump had 384 Sunday night, and Cruz had 300. Rubio had 128 delegates, and Kasich had 37. A candidate needs 1,237 to win the GOP nomination outright.
How to win Ohio
With Trump and Cruz pulling away, Kasich's best hope is for Rubio to lose Florida on March 15 and drop out. If Kasich wins Ohio and its 66 delegates, he could snap up support from mainstream Republicans who loathe both Trump and Cruz and make it a three-person race.
Kasich has already predicted he won't be able to win the GOP nomination outright, but he hopes to keep Trump and other candidates from picking up a majority of delegates. Then, he hopes to win delegates to his side at the GOP convention in Cleveland in July. To get there, he would need to show he can win in states outside of his home base in Ohio as the primary season continues.
Rubio, Kasich need each other to stop Trump
Crucial to Kasich’s chance of winning Ohio is a good performance in Michigan, which votes Tuesday. He needs to show Ohioans he has a chance of winning the nomination. In a poll last month, Kasich had the highest favorability rating of any candidate in Ohio, with 77 percent of likely GOP voters viewing him positively. Still, only 26 percent said they would vote for him March 15. Trump led the poll, edging Kasich with 31 percent.
Kasich originally had targeted Michigan for a possible first win, but that goal evaporated as Trump built up a lead in polls of as much as 20 points over the field. Kasich, those polls show, is in fourth place in Michigan, hovering around the 15 percent needed to win any delegates Tuesday.
Still, Kasich's performance in Thursday's debate and ads supporting him in Michigan may have given him a boost. The only poll conducted entirely after the debate showed Kasich ahead of Trump, 33 percent to 31 percent. We may not know until Tuesday whether it's an anomaly.
At a town hall meeting Friday night in Holland, Michigan, a man told Kasich: “We love you, but my wife says, ‘I think it’s a waste of a vote.’ ”
“Are you kidding me? I’m going to win Ohio, and I’m going to become the Republican nominee,” Kasich said. “Do you know that I will not go down into the mud and in the gutter to win? Do you do everything in your life based on what your head tells you, or does your heart ever figure in? They both do? OK, so did I convince you?"
'I could screw this thing up'
Kasich did receive a boost in momentum following Thursday’s GOP debate in Detroit. For example, he has often trailed other candidates in online search interest. But in the 12 hours after the debate, only Trump topped him in Google searches about the candidates' debate performance.
The campaign also saw an increase in online donations after the debate, Kasich said.
“Kasich's long, persistent, and at times quiet campaign has begun to pay off,” former House Speaker and presidential candidate Newt Gingrich said Friday in his weekly newsletter. “Last night, for the first time, Americans began to hear Kasich's ideas.”
For Kasich, the weight of what he is trying to accomplish has started to show. Ohio’s governor – he with the sometimes-explosive temper and propensity for gaffes – has run a largely positive presidential campaign. While other candidates have mocked and criticized each other, Kasich has focused on inspirational speeches about reaching out to neighbors and helping children reach their potential.
“I could screw this thing up,” Kasich told reporters Friday. “I could get angry and say something I regret. But I think by and large I want to keep this thing positive, because life is but a breath.” He talks often about making his wife, his daughters, his friends proud of him.
Ohioans may see a different campaign than Kasich runs in other states. So far, the campaign has scheduled only rallies, instead of the question-and-answer sessions that have been the hallmark of his presidential bid.
At his rally in Columbus on Sunday, the only sign of any opposition was a line of Trump signs near the entrance to the conservatory. Two people held Trump signs near the road, while another man stood near the entrance to the event with a “NotKasich.com” sign.
Still, Kasich’s supporters acknowledge he faces a tight battle in Ohio and a steep climb nationally.
“It’s going to be tough,” said Jessica Jardine, who came to the Columbus rally with her husband, Bryce, and their 18-month-old daughter. “I think there is a chance things can turn around if he wins Ohio. The three other guys at the top, I can’t imagine any one of them being our leader.”
“I’m just afraid Trump is going to win the primary and Hillary (Clinton) is going to win” in November, Bryce Jardine said.
The Associated Press contributed.
John Kasich campaign staffer fired after domestic violence arrest
Kasich releases taxes
Kasich this weekend also released the first two pages from his tax returns for the past seven years. That leaves Trump as the only active candidate who has not done so. Trump says he won't release the returns because of an IRS audit.
From 2008 to 2014, Kasich and his wife, Karen, have earned roughly $5.3 million and have paid roughly 31 percent of their income in federal taxes. That includes money Kasich earned as governor, as a public speaker, a board member, an author, a Lehman Brothers employee and a Fox News commentator and from the couple's investments, his campaign said.
Since winning the governor's office in 2011, the Kasichs' total income reported has ranged from $706,043 to $313,705.
— Associated Press