NEWS

Sittenfeld's focus on guns: smart politics or losing strategy?

Deirdre Shesgreen
dshesgreen@usatoday.com

WASHINGTON — In his Senate campaign, Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld has focused relentlessly and almost singularly on one subject: gun control, a hot-button topic that Sittenfeld sees as a way to break through in his uphill primary battle against former Gov. Ted Strickland.

Some Sittenfeld allies say it’s a politically compelling issue that could tilt the race in his favor — and that has already chipped away at Strickland’s electoral advantages. A private memo from Sittenfeld’s polling team, obtained by the Enquirer, says the candidate’s focus on curbing gun violence is the “single most compelling positive message of his campaign.”

But others say Sittenfeld’s laser-like focus on guns is a risky strategy that could make him sound like a one-note trumpet, particularly at a time when voters are concerned about the economy, jobs, and other pocketbook issues.

Sittenfeld has “drawn blood” from Strickland on the gun issue, but his attacks have not delivered a real body blow, said Steve Fought, an Ohio-based Democratic consultant who has donated to Sittenfeld but is not working for either candidate.

“Apparently Sittenfeld and his team feel as though this is working, so why stop?” Fought said. “But he needs a second act.”

Dale Butland, a spokesman for Sittenfeld, said the city councilman is not ignoring other issues. In campaign events and editorial board meetings across the state, Sittenfeld has talked about everything from his support for paid sick leave to increasing Social Security benefits, Butland said.

But he conceded that gun control has been a dominant theme for the city councilman, with Sittenfeld’s campaign blasting out a blizzard of gun-related policy proposals and hammering Strickland for his pro-gun rights positions. So far this year, Sittenfeld’s campaign has distributed more than 15 press releases on gun issues, and only four that don’t mention guns at all.

“It’s arguably the hottest issue in the country right now,” said Butland, noting that gun control has also come up repeatedly in the Democratic presidential race. In that contest, as in the Ohio Senate race, former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has accused her rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, of being weak on gun control and unwilling to stand up to the National Rifle Association.

Butland declined to talk about the campaign’s polling data, except to say that gun control “is a powerful issue with Ohio Democrats … and in many instances changes their votes.”

The confidential memo from Sittenfeld’s pollsters offers more details. It says that once Democratic primary voters learn about Strickland’s A+ rating from the NRA and his votes against a ban on assault weapons, among other positions, they swing to Sittenfeld’s side.

“Our polling finds that Democratic primary voters are deeply disturbed to learn” about Strickland’s gun-rights record, the memo states. After voters learn “positive and negative information about both candidates and their positions on guns,” the memo says, Sittenfeld takes a 10 percentage-point lead in the race — winning 49 percent support to Strickland’s 39 percent.

Public polls paint a different picture, one in which Strickland is an overwhelming favorite and most Ohioans don’t know enough about Sittenfeld to have an opinion. Sittenfeld and Strickland will face off in the March 15 primary, with the winner likely to face GOP Sen. Rob Portman in the general election.

Strickland has tread carefully on the gun issue and his campaign has focused more on economic issues.

“Ted believes the middle class is being squeezed on several fronts — stagnating wages, threats to retirement security and the skyrocketing cost of higher education,” said his spokesman, David Bergstein. He shrugged off any suggestion that Sittenfeld was gaining ground in the primary.

“By any measurement, Ted's message is resonating powerfully with Ohio voters,” he said.

Kyle Kondik, an Ohio native and political analyst with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said there's no question gun control is a potent issue with Democratic voters, but he said it’s not clear Sittenfeld is getting any real traction with it yet.

“Sittenfeld is a long-shot candidate trying to break through, and he’s found an important primary wedge issue,” he said. “He’s trying to exploit it for what it’s worth.”

He and other political experts said it’s not unheard of for candidates to zero in on a single issue, but it’s not always a great bet. In the 2014 election, for example, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall tore into his GOP rival Cory Gardner over his opposition to abortion, a line of attack that often revs up the Democratic base and wins over independent women voters.

But Udall lost because “voters were worried about other things,” said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate campaigns for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Voters were focused on the economy, national security, and energy prices, while Udall was talking about abortion, the pill, and personhood initiatives.

With gun control, Sittenfeld has found an issue “where he can differentiate himself as more progressive than Strickland,” Duffy said. But he has also embraced positions that could hurt him in a general election, when he’d have to win over moderates and independents.

Strickland has said he would support “common-sense” proposals to prevent criminals, terrorists, and the mentally ill from purchasing guns. Sittenfeld has gone much further, saying he would support:

*revoking licenses from gun dealers who have a history of selling to criminals;

*requiring gun manufacturers to include child-safety locks on handguns;

*tightening background checks for gun buyers; and

*reinstating the ban on semi-automatic rifles.

“He’s put himself pretty far out there for a general election,” said Duffy. “If he were the nominee, Portman would start to look pretty moderate on guns.”