Will conspiracy trial figure in Mandel's election?

Scandal is again threatening the Ohio state treasurer's office.

The case – unfolding this month in a Cleveland courtroom – involves a GOP donor, Northeast Ohio businessman Ben Suarez. He's accused of conspiring to violate federal campaign laws by allegedly filtering $100,000 in donations to Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel – some of it just days after Mandel sent official state treasurer's letters on Suarez's behalf.

Although the Republican treasurer has not been charged, an assistant U.S. attorney stopped just short Wednesday of saying the donations represented a quid pro quo exchange – I'll help you if you help me. That suggestion of political favors likely will feature prominently in Hamilton County Democrat Connie Pillich's bid to unseat Mandel this November, although criminal quid pro quo charges are difficult to bring against a politician.

"It's legal to do things for people, and it's legal to take their money, but it's not legal to do things for their money. The problem you have here is those two things happened in very quick succession," said David Niven, who teaches politics at the University of Cincinnati and was speechwriter for former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland.

Suarez, who runs an "As Seen on TV" marketing business, was facing a California lawsuit in 2011 for misleading advertising. According to the case the government laid out Wednesday, Mandel met with the beleaguered businessman and agreed to advocate for him by writing to California authorities.

Mandel asked Suarez to raise $100,000 for his unsuccessful 2012 campaign for U.S. Senate, Assistant U.S. Attorney Carole Rendon told the jury. Then, she said, Suarez told employees to donate to Mandel's campaign and reimbursed their donations. If that's true, the campaign finance scheme is illegal.

Suarez's employees similarly donated – and were reimbursed – $100,000 to U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, R-Wadsworth, investigators say. If convicted, Suarez faces up to 12 years in prison.

Suarez's defense concedes his employees were repaid the money they donated. But his attorney called the repayment an advance that would eventually be deducted from their profit-sharing checks. Suarez wasn't involved in the company's day-to-day operations, the attorney said. Those matters were handled by Chief Financial Officer Michael Giorgio, who has pleaded guilty in the scheme.

Both Mandel and Renacci have maintained they knew nothing of Suarez's alleged contribution scheme and eventually returned the donations. Neither has been charged; they are expected to be subpoenaed to testify.

Rebecca Wasserstein, a spokeswoman for Mandel's campaign, said in a statement: "Neither Treasurer Mandel nor anyone associated with him has done anything improper, there was absolutely no quid pro quo with these constituent letters, and our cooperation with the authorities will continue."

Political analysts say that, in the end, the Suarez trial may not hurt Mandel's 2014 race against Pillich – in part because it's so difficult to prove wrongdoing in situations that suggest quid pro quo.

"To say, 'I'll support you; do you support me?' – in some form or other, that happens in a million different ways," said Xavier University political scientist Gene Beaupre. "I don't think people lose their base over something like this."

The state treasurer's job, which oversees collecting and investing the state's taxes, is among the least recognizable to November voters. A handful of Democratic polls have shown Pillich with an edge over Mandel in the race, but Mandel has name recognition from his statewide 2010 treasurer's race and his failed 2012 Senate bid. Pillich is a state representative from Montgomery who is largely unknown elsewhere in the state.

Mandel is expected to fight to keep from having to testify in the trial – among other reasons, to avoid creating fodder for negative campaign ads, Niven said. A spokesman for Pillich's campaign declined to comment, but Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern emphasized the importance of the trial to the campaign.

"I think as things continue to be revealed in Cleveland, the whole state will be watching," Redfern said.

The lack of charges against Mandel and his staff mark the difference between this scandal and the one that followed the exit of previous Democratic Treasurer Kevin Boyce. After a federal investigation into a kickback scheme involving the Ohio Treasury's investment fees, Boyce's deputy treasurer, Amer Ahmad, pleaded guilty in December to bribery and conspiracy.

Ahmad, who had been free while he awaited sentencing, this spring ran away to Pakistan with $176,000 cash. He is currently in a Pakistani jail, facing charges related to using a fake passport and smuggling. It's not clear whether Pakistan will extradite him to the U.S.

"Look at the treasurer's office before Josh Mandel took over, and look at it now. That's what the voters care about," said Ohio GOP spokesman Chris Schrimpf. "And there's no doubt that Josh Mandel took a disaster of an office and turned it around."

Mandel may win election in November, Niven said, but his chances of election to a more prominent office may be slipping away.

"I don't think this is as harmful if he wants to be on the B Team of the statewide candidates. But it's harder for him to tell the story that he's the best thing the party has to offer if there's another Senate race or if he wants to run for governor," Niven said. "All of the other candidates for statewide office agree on the major issues and don't have this hanging over them." ■