NEWS

Kasich 'leads with his chin,' & gets walloped

Chrissie Thompson
cthompson@usatoday.com

John Kasich has had a rough 24 hours.

John Kasich speaks during Republican presidential debate at Milwaukee Theatre, Tuesday night.

The GOP governor's attempt to interrupt his way into Tuesday's GOP debate soured -- getting him lots of talking time, but painting images alternately dour, belligerent and petulant. Stories panning Kasich's performance dominated national political news Wednesday, the boos Kasich received from conservatives echoing behind the analysis.

Kasich had previewed a new, aggressive approach two weeks ago -- Kasich-as-usual, to those who've watched him as Ohio's governor. But on Wednesday, headlines spoke not of Kasich's dispatching of Donald Trump but of his repeated attempts to butt in to assert his more moderate views. And if Kasich slides in the polls as a result, he risks failing to qualify for the main stage in future debates.

"He's trying to show a lot of passion, but it comes off as anger," said Aaron Kall, director of the debate program at the University of Michigan. "He's kind of getting the caricature of the kind of sweaty, perturbed speaker on the end."

Kasich's debate: Claps, boos, Trump

No more 'sunny' Kasich

With Kasich, an aggressive, interruptions-based strategy always had the potential to resurrect the "jerk" image that at times has dogged his governorship. So Kasich avoided the approach at first.

He hit the campaign trail boasting a relaxed, fun-loving side. (The Washington Post said a Kasich campaign would rely on his "sunny, populist persona.") He refused to criticize opponents and wouldn't stoop to interrupt or confront in debates. Paired with New England TV commercials in which he comes off as affable, the message got Kasich on short lists all over the state of New Hampshire, home to the nation's first primary.

But after a polling slide and a quiet second debate, the old Kasich was unleashed. By the time the Ohio governor took the stage Tuesday, sunny, optimistic Kasich was nowhere in sight.

Neither was a combative GOP field. After Fox Business Network promised to give candidates more time to answer and more equal airtime, many backed off the free-for-all strategies of previous debates. Kasich, on the other hand, came ready to battle. He interrupted more times -- six -- than other candidates were asked questions, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. And his style of interrupting -- calling out to try to secure the floor -- seemed more jarring than that of candidates such as Carly Fiorina, who often simply started talking, as if she were in a boardroom conversation.

Then Kasich interrupted to complain about not receiving enough questions. He received only two. A third question to him was called off when several other candidates interrupted. At a commercial break, Kasich confronted moderators.

Alone in this strategy, Kasich turned off many debate watchers with the interruptions.

GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who grabs moment-by-moment reactions from focus groups of Republicans turning dials from 1 to 100, tweeted: "My NH focus group is offended by Kasich's interruptions. Really offended. Lowest dials of the #GOPdebate – 25."

"Kasich seemed peevish, short-tempered and anything but presidential," wrote Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post blog The Fix, among the political journalists and pundits who named Kasich a debate "loser."

For Kasich, those sorts of media reports matter. While 13.5 million viewers watched the Fox Business Network debate, and perhaps another million or two online, tens of millions of voters got their assessment of the debate only from a snapshot in the press.

The GOP candidates have another debate in a month, assuming Kasich can poll well enough to qualify. And he showed in the GOP's first two debates that he can refrain from interrupting if he sets his mind to it. But Tuesday's performance might exacerbate a growing problem for Kasich, pointed out by FiveThirtyEight forecaster Nate Silver: Kasich's favorability ratings have been falling in New Hampshire.

Too moderate?

The interruptions likely led to Kasich's weakest moment Tuesday, but ultimately substance did him in. In an exchange with Ted Cruz, conservatives in the Milwaukee crowd booed Kasich for saying he'd consider bailing out a major bank. Kasich argued a president couldn't allow millions of everyday investors to lose their life savings -- and should support policies that would keep banks healthy in the first place. But the audience didn't seem to understand or care.

The exchange was the culmination of an evening when repeated Kasich interruptions and asides positioned him to the left of the field's more conservative members. On trade. On the minimum wage. On immigration. And, apparently, on bailouts.

Throughout the campaign, Kasich had dabbled in asserting his conservative and outsider credentials. But in the last two debates, he focused on hammering home his experience and pragmatism – the dynamics of The Year of the Outsider be damned.

The social-media drubbing he received late Tuesday and Wednesday from top conservatives was more gleeful in tone than offended. The right wing of the Republican Party has long been wary, at the least, of Kasich's expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare and his endorsement of Common Core educational standards. He wasn't likely to win their primary vote, under any circumstance.

With Tuesday's performance, Kasich seemed to say he wouldn't try -- an admirable show of authenticity, but troubling for a campaign that would need to perform well in several Southern states to get any mileage in the 2016 primaries.

Still, Kasich's early clash with Trump could offer hope to the Ohio governor. The exchange, in which Kasich called out Trump's "silly" idea of deporting people who are in the U.S. illegally, was the top debate clip viewed on YouTube as of Wednesday afternoon, according to Google Trends data. On Wednesday morning, Trump dug in, telling MSNBC he'd launch a humane "deportation force."

"I don't think anybody thought we'd be that direct with Trump. And we did, and we beat him," said Tom Rath, a longtime New Hampshire politico and presidential campaign adviser who supports Kasich.

The fix? Lighthearted speech after lighthearted speech

Despite his rough night Tuesday, Kasich is in a field that still has no outright front-runner. Trump and Ben Carson can look vulnerable. Their strategy of running as political outsiders is untested. Cruz and Marco Rubio have yet to gain enough momentum to contend for a position as race leader.

If Kasich can qualify for future primetime debates, he can hold back on the interruptions. And if moderators are trying to even out talking time, fewer interruptions could mean more questions than the two he received Tuesday. Even so, Kasich will be Kasich in his answers, Rath said.  He's passionate, Rath said, but "sometimes he leads with his chin."

But to regain momentum, Kasich must continue to mix in some of the lighthearted optimism. On the campaign trail, he sometimes has grown weary of the yarns he tells in his biographic stump speech, rushing through punch lines. He sometimes dispenses with the pleasant countenance or biographic moments altogether.

He must find a way for sunny Kasich to coexist with aggressive-elder-statesman Kasich, Rath said.

"We haven't been able to remind people of our positives," Rath said. "Part of this is the art of repetition. Smart people, and John Kasich is a smart person, get bored."

But, Rath said, "his bio is part of the essence of his appeal."

"The points we made on experience, on balancing the budget, on immigration, I'm content where we are on those," Rath said. "And I think other folks have to face the facts on those."

Indeed, Wednesday night Kasich doubled down in South Carolina on his less-extremism, more-pragmatism message, saying that's the key to beating Democrat Hillary Clinton next year.

“I’d like to win an election in the fall,” Kasich said to a room of a few hundred voters on Hilton Head Island. He added of Trump's deportation plan, “with a program like that, I’m not convinced we can win Ohio.”

But what if GOP voters find even sunny Kasich's positions too moderate?

"If that happens," Rath said, "then we lose."

Contributing: The Associated Press