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Bengals Draft Strategy: Quarterbacks

Cincinnati Bengals 2016 NFL Draft Strategy: Quarterbacks

Paul Dehner Jr.
pdehnerjr@enquirer.com

In this nine-part series, The Enquirer takes a look at the strategy for the Bengals 2016 draft by counting down the team's positional needs from least pressing to most immediate. Bengals beat writers Paul Dehner Jr. and Jim Owczarski take a look at top players, sleepers, Bengals history, strategy and what the experts say. The draft takes place April 28-30 in Chicago. 

Today starts with quarterbacks.

Positional Priority

Dead last, nine of nine. The Bengals are set with Andy Dalton locked up and ascending to pair with AJ McCarron showing ability to take over and win games if needed.

Rate the class

An average class of quarterbacks, with North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz and University of California’s Jared Goff the clear cream of the crop. Paxton Lynch, of the University of Memphis, projects to a mid-to-late first round pick and that will likely be all for the first round.

Bengals trend

Marvin Lewis despises quarterback controversy –  he wants nothing to do with it. Any time a quarterback was drafted, a clear pecking order existed the moment he set foot in Paul Brown Stadium. Throwing out Carson Palmer and Dalton, who were drafted to eventually take over as the starters, Lewis never selected a quarterback before the fifth round. He selected Casey Bramlet (2004, 7th round), Jeff Rowe (2007, 5th) and McCarron (2014, 5th).

The Cincinnati Bengals are not interested in trading quarterback AJ McCarron but it doesn't mean they wouldn't if a significant offer came along.

Key variable

The McCarron trade scenario lingers under the surface here. Teams with quarterback needs who don’t get what they want could come calling with interest for McCarron. If that team isn’t toting a first-round pick, the Bengals likely won’t listen. Lewis came out at the owners’ meetings and said the team isn’t interested in dealing McCarron and Mike Brown reiterated those comments, only adding he’s not comfortable with the word “never.” A higher likelihood exists McCarron could be dealt next offseason, but with that in mind having a quarterback in the system who could rise to a backup level in two years would show the Bengals have the McCarron deal possibility in the back of their minds.

Best Bengals fit

Cardale Jones, Ohio State. The Bengals worked out Jones and his assessment as a project could fit Cincinnati’s needs looking long term past McCarron. Jones owns the big arm and the measurables to make it but is raw in most every other area. With late-round picks, Lewis loves to say that a player needs a trait that makes him worth keeping around. Jones’ body type and arm are just that. If he slips far down the board or goes undrafted, it’s possible the Bengals bite.

Pro Football Focus college research

Jones ranked last among all prospects in accuracy on throws ranging from 6-30 yards down the field. Despite his big arm, arguably strongest in the class, Jones ranked 17th in completion percentage in deep passing last season.

South squad quarterback Brandon Allen of Arkansas (10) throws a pass during second half of the Senior Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium.

Sleepers to track

  • Brandon Allen, Arkansas. Expected to be a third-day selection, he could fall down boards and allow the Bengals to take a flier on him. Started three seasons at Arkansas and while his hand size is well below the desired size (8 1/2), he throws with good velocity and improved consistently throughout his career with the Razorbacks.
  • Cody Kessler, USC. Similar characteristics as Dalton coming out. Great anticipation and very accurate but knocked for lack of arm strength. He took a step back in production last year after a spectacular 2014 could allow him to fall down the draft.

What the draftniks say

CBS Sports draft expert Dane Brugler in his draft prospectus about Arkansas’ Allen:

“Was arguably the SEC’s top passer in 2015 with an impressive second half of the season, especially in November (68.6% completions and 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interceptions ratio), finishing 4-0 with wins over Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State and Missouri. Allen lacks ideal physical traits for the NFL with average-at-best size and arm strength, but he can handle pressure, maneuver in the pocket and deliver downfield, using controlled steps and enough velocity when he can step into throws. Although he has a low NFL ceiling due to his limitations, Allen has the mental toughness and cerebral presence to develop into a reliable back-up.”

Our prediction

The Bengals likely opt for an undrafted free agent project at quarterback to compete with Keith Wenning for a spot on the practice squad. Any QB selected prior to the sixth round would be a shock. With Dalton and McCarron on the roster and no desire to carry three quarterbacks, any player who couldn't eventually be stashed on the practice squad would be a waste of a pick.