Kasich allies hope ad will help as he risks missing debate

Give John Kasich a final look, a new ad says -- as the Ohio governor's allies seek to help him squeeze into the next GOP debate and find new momentum for his presidential campaign.

Kasich is hoping to emerge next month in New Hampshire, home to the nation's first primary, as the establishment Republican alternative to billionaire Donald Trump and conservative Sen. Ted Cruz, who are leading national polls. To do so, he must defeat two fellow governors, New Jersey's Chris Christie and former Florida executive Jeb Bush. Sen. Marco Rubio poses a possible threat to all three, polling ahead of Cruz in New Hampshire and counting both mainstream Republicans and conservatives among his supporters.

First, Kasich faces a more pressing dilemma. The Ohio governor is sitting on the cutoff for Fox Business Network's Republican debate next Thursday, which promises to winnow the main stage field from eight in December to six or seven. To qualify, candidates must finish in the top six in an average of recent national polls or in the top five in an average of polls from early-voting Iowa or New Hampshire.

Depending on which New Hampshire polls the network chooses to consider, recent surveys would put Kasich at either fifth, and a debate qualifier, or sixth, and off the main stage for the first time since he entered the race last summer. Missing the debate would be a dangerous development for a candidate who needs to sell his viability for the nomination to early primary voters.

The new TV commercial seeks to capitalize on the New Hampshire reality propelling Kasich's campaign, despite his stagnation this fall in polls: Voters famously wait until the last minute to choose a candidate. Half of all New Hampshire voters in the last two elections hadn't made up their minds two days before the primary. With this year's primary on Feb. 9, Kasich hopes he still has a month to reverse his fortunes and win voters over.

3 questions facing 'impatient rascal' John Kasich

"Who do you like in this election?" an interviewer asks in the ad, paid for by New Day for America, the political action committee backing Kasich.

"Not sure yet. Whoever gets something done," a New Hampshire voter says.

Then, Kasich talks about Ohio's budget surplus, income tax cuts he has championed and the growth in private-sector jobs since he became governor in 2011, after the recession.

"What do you think?" the interviewer asks. "Kasich," several people say, as the commercial seeks to show he's won them over.

Kasich's PAC ranks second in ad spending in New Hampshire, the state most critical to Kasich's candidacy, according to figures tracked by NBC News and SMG Delta. From last summer through Jan. 9, Kasich and his PAC will have spent $10.1 million, trailing only the $23 million spent by Bush and his allies.

The new commercial will replace an ad the PAC had run contrasting Kasich with Christie, Rubio, Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. "Unlike some," that ad said, "John Kasich has proven he can do the job."

Christie, who polls the best of the three governors in New Hampshire, is receiving most of the attacks from rival candidates these days. He gained momentum in New Hampshire late in the fall, boosted by some key Granite State endorsements and by his tough attitude toward national security. Candidates, including Kasich, hope to win over voters newly supportive of Christie.

Rubio's PAC is hitting Christie the hardest with two TV commercials that launched this week. One excoriates the New Jersey governor for his moderate stances. The other calls him out for his administration's role in the so-called Bridgegate scandal, in which aides allegedly ordered the closure of high-traffic commuter lanes to punish a local mayor for refusing to endorse Christie's gubernatorial re-election bid.

Kasich's PAC also slammed Christie this week, sending New Hampshire voters a mailer that calls out his struggling approval rating in New Jersey and the persistence of a projected budget shortfall in the state. Christie's record is "weak" and "failed," the PAC says.

And Kasich himself has started to criticize Christie, if obliquely. Christie has been one of Kasich's closer colleagues among GOP governors. But on Sunday, Kasich said he didn't know why New Hampshire voters haven't given him credit for his high approval rating in his home state, while boosting Christie despite his struggles back home. (He also cited a recent poll showing him in third place in New Hampshire -- an aberration from months' worth of other polls, which Kasich's campaign points to as a shift in momentum.)

"Here in Ohio, we have a balanced budget. They don't over in New Jersey. Our credit has been strengthened. Their credit has been downgraded. We've got more jobs," Kasich told NBC News' "Meet the Press." "I can't explain it to you other than in Ohio, there's great optimism about the future here both economically and also the sense that everybody has a voice here in the state. Why it's happening in New Jersey, I don't know."

Christie responded to the PAC attacks by lashing out at Rubio and Kasich in an interview Tuesday with The Washington Post.

“I just don’t think Marco Rubio’s going to be able to slime his way to the White House,” Christie said. “He wants to put out a whole bunch of negative ads? Go ahead."

Of Kasich, Christie said: “John Kasich? He’s attacking me from the right? Okay. From the right? I mean, come on. Please.”

New Day shot its latest commercial at a Kasich town hall in November. Kasich's public town halls have an all-comers philosophy that welcomes camera-wielding journalists and sometimes trackers for opposing candidates or political causes. By extension, continues the philosophy, which is common among 2016 candidates, the town hall meetings can include videographers working for New Day, even though the PAC isn't allowed to coordinate with Kasich or his campaign.