NEWS

Donald Trump edges John Kasich in new Ohio primary poll

Chrissie Thompson
cthompson@usatoday.com
Ohio governor John Kasich listens to questions during the Charleston County Town Hall at Finn's Brick Oven in Mt Pleasant, South Carolina Wednesday February 10, 2016.

John Kasich trails Donald Trump by a slim margin in a new poll of likely voters in Ohio's March 15 Republican primary, a must-win for the Ohio governor's presidential campaign.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, Trump leads Kasich 31 percent to 26 percent in Ohio, where voters are already casting ballots via early and absentee voting. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas finishes third at 21 percent, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has 13 percent.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 55 percent to 40 percent.

For Kasich, the poll marks a recovery from a Quinnipiac survey this fall that showed him trailing both Trump and Dr. Ben Carson, whose candidacy now amounts to an asterisk in the presidential race. Kasich's campaign received a boost this month when he finished second in New Hampshire's primary.

Still, the poll challenges the notion the Ohio governor would surely win his home state, even though he has pulled to within striking distance of Trump. The campaign repeatedly has touted Kasich's strength in Ohio as a primary selling point, saying he would carry the bellwether state in the general election if he were the nominee. No Republican has secured the presidency without winning Ohio.

Indeed, as Kasich has faced some pressure this week to wrap up his campaign in the face of Rubio's momentum among establishment Republicans, advisers have continued to point to the next three weeks as crucial to the GOP primary process. They've outlined a strategy in which Kasich would compete with Rubio in a few Super Tuesday states next week, grab a chunk of delegates in Michigan's March 8 primary and then win Ohio March 15 -- the same day that Rubio is likely to struggle to beat Trump in Florida. That would give Kasich, not Rubio, momentum in the GOP nomination process, they say.

Last week, Kasich strategist John Weaver told reporters he expected the campaign's strength in Ohio would even allow Kasich to "camp out" in other states that vote March 15.

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“We’re not going to take Ohio for granted. It’s in good shape," he told The Enquirer Friday after a campaign event in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. "But our strength there will allow us to spend a considerable amount of time in Illinois and Missouri.”

If Kasich can win Ohio, establishment Republicans have hope of stopping Trump in some states, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

“If Trump can defeat Kasich in his home state, that would be an impressive demonstration of his strength in a state that is just now getting attention," Brown said in a statement. "But Trump’s lead is just 5 points, certainly not large enough for him to breathe easy.”

Among Republicans surveyed by Quinnipiac, 5 percent said they had yet to choose a candidate, and 38 percent of those who named a candidate said they might change their mind. Kasich, with some momentum or campaign work, could have hope to win those people's votes: He had the highest favorability rating of any candidate, with 77 percent of likely GOP voters viewing him positively.

The poll standings account for the decision by Jeb Bush to drop out of the race. Quinnipiac reallocated his supporters to the candidates they indicated were their second-choice picks.

Read the full poll results here.

Quinnipiac conducted the poll Tuesday through Saturday, when Kasich was enjoying a boost out of New Hampshire and before the results of the South Carolina primary turned the conversation to Rubio's momentum. That's also largely before the results of the Nevada caucus came out Saturday afternoon, showing Clinton defeating Sanders.

The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points among the 759 Republicans polled and +/-4.3 percentage points among the 518 Democratic voters.

Kathleen Gray of the Detroit Free Press contributed.

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