John Kasich: Should he stay or should he go now?
A battle raged on social media and in inboxes Monday.
The Marco Rubio campaign touted big donors and endorsers including former presidential nominee Bob Dole and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The John Kasich team touted fewer new endorsements and billionaire backers, but countered with polling that showed the Ohio governor locked with Rubio in some upcoming primary states.
At stake: the title of the Republican establishment's choice, tasked with taking on frontrunner Donald Trump.
The Rubio campaign argues their man has already earned the mantle with his better-than-expected second place in the South Carolina primary Saturday, which prompted Jeb Bush to abandon his presidential bid. Team Rubio's sentiment: Kasich has no chance and should drop out, and soon.
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The Kasich campaign argues no one has won the title yet. Only three states have voted, after all, and Kasich and Rubio are separated by only five delegates. Kasich will beat Rubio in more moderate states and will win Ohio March 15, Team Kasich says.
Still, the campaign is already staving off growing pressure to call it quits.
There's a reason: Since 1980, when South Carolina moved to its early-primary spot, every GOP candidate who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has become the nominee. That person this year, in case you hadn't noticed, is Trump. The Republican establishment is scrambling to buck history, many terrified of the prospect of a Trump nomination or even a Trump presidency.
John Kasich finishes 5th in South Carolina primary as Jeb Bush drops out
"Most would want Kasich to drop out in favor of Rubio -- not because they think Rubio is inherently superior, but because he seems to have a somewhat better chance, and they just want to settle on someone," said John Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College and former research director for the Republican National Committee.
But Kasich presses on. Here's why he thinks he has a shot -- and why he might not be able to hold on.
How Kasich could stay in the race
Kasich has hardly had a chance to run against Rubio, supporters say. He only moved past his top rivals -- Chris Christie and Jeb Bush -- over the last two weeks.
"At the moment, we're not inclined to walk away from the table," said Tom Rath, a veteran presidential strategist backing Kasich. "This guy has worked hard his entire career, and you're going to say it's over in three weeks? It's an insult to the other states who haven't voted yet. You've got to play until the game is over. The game is not over."
The main ingredient to getting a shot: money. At the end of January, Kasich's campaign had $1.5 million in the bank, and his PAC had $2.4 million. Cruz's campaign, to compare, had $13.6 million. Kasich received more money after his second-place New Hampshire performance Feb. 9, but no one's saying how much.
The Kasich and Rubio teams are racing to snap up Bush donors now that he's out of the race. By an early tally, Rubio appears to have an edge. Still, Kasich has scored the support of two billionaires: financier Stanley Druckenmiller and hedge fund founder Julian Robertson.
'Pick me!' Kasich, Rubio say to Bush donors
If the Kasich team gets the cash it needs, expect the political action committee to find a way to hit Rubio on the first-term senator's experience level, perhaps through a comparison to another first-term senator whose Democratic presidency Republicans can't wait to see come to an end.
Kasich himself is arguing the electability angle. A national USA TODAY/ Suffolk University poll released last week showed he would beat Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 38 percent in a general election matchup. The next strongest Republican against Clinton is Rubio, who leads Clinton 47.5 percent to 41.6 percent.
"Everybody just hang on. Things are going to settle down," Kasich said Sunday on CBS News' "Face the Nation." "I get the money, continue to put the grassroots together, and you're going to see a great result. So people want to consolidate? They ought to consolidate my way."
To stay in, Kasich must compete with Rubio -- more helpfully, beat him -- in a handful of moderate states that vote March 1 and March 8. Then, he must beat Trump on March 15 in Ohio and hope Rubio continues to trail Trump in his own home state that same day.
He could also use some outside assistance. A major endorsement -- he has spoken publicly about his friendship with Christie, whose debate attacks hurt Rubio in New Hampshire -- would help. He also may gain unlikely assistance from Trump and Cruz, as the two fight against Rubio's momentum.
Why Kasich may end up dropping out
Still, next week's Super Tuesday presents a challenge for Kasich. Rubio is likely to perform better in the cluster of Southern states voting that day, and he'll likely extend his delegate advantage over Kasich.
Some point to delegate math to support the "Kasich should go" theory. For a few more weeks, also-rans in states' primaries will receive delegates based on the proportion of the state they won. Having Kasich in the race could limit the number of delegates Rubio could receive, and if he becomes the establishment favorite, he may need every delegate he can get to overtake Trump.
Starting March 15, states may award all their delegates to the winner. If in a three- or four-person race, Donald Trump gets 35 percent, he could win those states and cement his delegate advantage.
Many states also require a 20 percent minimum threshold to receive any delegates -- a percentage Kasich has yet to reach in any state, including in New Hampshire.
An alternative, of course, is a so-called "brokered convention." If no one wins a majority of the GOP's 2,472 delegates, voters at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July could select anyone, even a candidate who has not yet run for president this year.
Team Kasich argues all the handwringing over math is premature. Give him a shot to win Ohio's 66 delegates March 15 and some of the 59 up for grabs in Michigan on March 8, and he'll pull close to Rubio and reset the game.
"Nobody's got any delegates yet," GOP consultant John Feehery said. "Kasich's got to wait till he sees what happens in Ohio and Michigan. That gives him a path forward to other states and that gives him more money to ride."
For now, Rubio is calling for Republicans to join behind him.
“The sooner we can coalesce, the better we are going to be as a party in general," he said Sunday on Fox News. “I’m no one to tell anyone to drop out. ... (Kasich) has every right to make that decision for himself.”
Bush donors who have joined with Rubio may make the decision for Kasich.
Of Kasich, Bush donor Al Hoffman, former finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, said: "I love him a lot. He'd be a good alternative" to Trump and Cruz.
"But John has only, what, a million and half bucks? I don't think he's got a chance," Hoffman said. He declined to call for Kasich to drop out, but said: "I guess my default has to be Marco. That would be a tough one not to argue."
USA Today's Fredreka Schouten and Ledyard King contributed.