GOP hopes Kentucky matters in presidential race

Kentucky hasn’t mattered in a long time in picking presidents, unlike its neighbor to the north.

Presidential candidates rarely travel through Kentucky, save for the strip of Interstate 71/75 in Northern Kentucky between the airport and the Ohio River en route to events in Ohio.

Kentucky Republicans hope moving from a May primary to a March 5 caucus will change that. Eight Republican presidential candidates have filed to run in Kentucky: Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, real estate mogul Donald Trump and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

The March 5 caucus is only for the Republican presidential primary. A caucus is a gathering of party members to vote on a candidate. A primary, on the other hand, is a statewide election organized and funded by the state in normal voting precincts.

The rest of the offices on the 2016 ballot – local races, the GOP Senate primary, the Democratic primary – will still be voted on May 17.

“The presidential primary is already done, it is already decided, by the time we have our May primary,” said Troy Sheldon, GOP chairman of the 4th Congressional District. “Most presidential candidates do not visit Kentucky and decide not to put in the effort. With moving the caucus to March 5, we are much more in play.”

Any candidate who gets 5 percent of the vote will pick up a corresponding portion of Kentucky’s 46 delegates at the nominating convention. The caucus is still about Paul and his ambitions for president.

The Republican Party of Kentucky moved to a caucus so Paul could run for both his Senate post and for president. State law prohibits federal candidates appearing twice on the same ballot. Paul is putting up $250,000 to pay for the caucus and agreeing to pay more for additional expenses.

“This was done at the request of Senator Paul to support him in his effort for re-election, but it has the additional benefit of giving us a chance to grow the party in terms of engaging people who want to vote in the caucus,” said Republican Party of Kentucky Executive Director Mike Biagi.

Republicans hope there are other ancillary benefits. They are hoping the caucus increases registration in the party, which has steadily grown in recent years. Deadline to register Republican and participate in the caucus is Dec. 31. Republicans and non-Republicans alike, however, don’t know what to expect from a caucus in a state that hasn’t hosted one since 1984, when both Democrats and Republicans moved to the caucus system for one year. The caucus will be on a Saturday, not a Tuesday, and in one or two locations for 111 of the state’s 120 counties.

“My biggest concern is voter turnout,” said Kenton County GOP Chairman Greg Shumate. “We’ve never done this before. It’s on a day people are not used to having an election on. I’m afraid not enough voters will be aware it’s going on.”

Shumate and other Republican leaders said a 20 percent turnout would satisfy them. That number would be about the same as the turnout for a state presidential primary.

Republicans will go to one or two locations in each county to cast paper ballots that will be either scanned or counted by hand. A festival-like atmosphere will likely greet voters at many caucus locations, with GOP leaders planning picnics and music in many counties.

“We will do our best to make it as exciting as possible,” said Phyllis Sparks, who’s in charge of the caucus in Boone County. She said she’s planning on food and music at Florence Baptist Church, where Boone County will hold its caucus.

“It will be energetic,” Sparks said. “We hope to have representatives from the campaigns there, if not the candidates themselves.”

Just moving up the date, however, doesn’t mean Kentucky will get more clout, political experts say.

Before March 5, 18 states have caucuses or primaries. Three other states have contests on the same day as Kentucky: Maine, Kansas and Louisiana. Kentucky’s small size, and the fact that it’s Paul’s home turf, might discourage some candidates from having much of a ground game in Kentucky, said Al Cross, director of the Rural Institute for Journalism and Community Issues at the University of Kentucky.

“The proponents for the caucus have argued it would add to the state’s impact,” Cross said. “It will to some small degree, but the real reason is still to allow Rand Paul to run for two offices.”

Some candidates might look at it as a way to mortally wound Paul if they can beat him in his home state, said Josh Putnam, a visiting assistant professor of political science at Appalachian State University and author of the Frontloading HQ blog. But they might also view Kentucky as not worth the hassle, he said.

Kentucky and Louisiana have the same number of delegates and have contests on the same day. A much bigger prize, Michigan, has a primary March 8.

“Campaigns have to lay the groundwork well in advance of caucuses to be successful,” Putnam said. “A lot more is asked of caucus voters than is true for primary voters. You not only have to identify supporters, but you have to identify those who are willing to sit through a long meeting.”

The Republicans who make a point to go to each county’s caucus meeting will only vote for their preference for presidential nominee.

Many Republicans aren’t sure if they’ll do another caucus after this.

“Unless it turns into a tremendous party-building exercise, this is taking a lot of our time,” Shumate said. “It’s time we could be spending on other things. If turnout is low, we have to question whether it is worth the time investment.”

Kentucky GOP Caucuses at a glance

When: March 5

Time: 10 a.m.-4 p.m.

Where: Campbell County: Wilder City Building, 520 Licking Pike, Wilder, Ky, 41071

Boone County: Florence Baptist Church, 642 Mount Zion Road, Florence, Ky. 41042

Kenton County: Summit View School, 5002 Madison Pike, Independence, Ky. 41051