Pre-debate, Kasich sees hope for 'win'

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. — What a difference a week has made for John Kasich.

As the new year opened, Kasich had endured months of stagnant polling. He’d touted experience and results and had taken questions in about 50 New Hampshire town hall meetings – more than any other candidate.

“Man, I live here,” he joked last week, according to the New Hampshire Union Leader.

Beneath the jokes, there was frustration. Discouragement, even.

Kasich's campaign and political action committee had the early-primary state’s most consistent presence through advertising and staff contact with voters. Nationally, he’d worked hard to improve his debate strategy and style.

Still, Kasich largely had been written out of the national narrative, and he risked missing Thursday night’s debate in South Carolina. Meanwhile, rivals – most recently New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie – had enjoyed surges in momentum and validation in the polls.

On Monday, that all changed.

For the past week, polls had trickled out, showing Kasich improving in New Hampshire. But they were inconsistent, and some used questionable robo-calling or online survey methods. On Monday morning, two more-trusted polls landed on the national scene, bringing with them clarity: Kasich was tied for second place in New Hampshire and a shoo-in for Thursday’s debate here.

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Suddenly, Kasich had a shot of pushing past his rivals in the nation’s first primary, on Feb. 9.

"People said, 'That kind of a message, that's not going to work, because you're not yelling and screaming,' " Kasich told a crowd of more than 100 at a Charleston bar Wednesday night. "We've just seen in the polls that we have risen to second place in New Hampshire. ... If we come out of New Hampshire as a story, I believe that the team that I'll put together will win the nomination."

In a fundraising email Monday to supporters, he went a step further.

“No Republican has EVER won the White House without winning Ohio,” he said in the note. Then, in bold: “I am the only candidate who can guarantee you that I will defeat Hillary (Clinton) in Ohio.”

Heading into Thursday’s debate, Kasich – though still lagging in national and Iowa polls – has an opportunity.

National reporters and political watchers around the country are newly tuned in to his candidacy. New Hampshire voters – most of whom don’t make a final decision until days before the election – are switching gears from sampling candidates to weighing them more seriously. And casual observers everywhere are only starting to wake up to the reality that it’s an election year.

A dynamic debate performance could send Kasich shooting to the fore. A dour, interruption-laden showing, or botched handling of attacks from increasingly threatened rivals, could sour the narrative again.

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Either way, Kasich will head right back to New Hampshire, to take more questions from voters in his marathon town hall-meeting effort. His family joins him next week, and Ohio politicos and volunteers are shipping off to the state to sell their governor to New Hampshire voters.

Even though the Iowa caucuses are a week before New Hampshire's primary, Kasich has continued to focus on the Granite State and its more pragmatic voters. As of last week, Kasich and his PAC ranked second in ad spending in New Hampshire, according to figures tracked by NBC News and SMG Delta. Their $10.1 million trailed only the $23 million spent by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and his allies.

At his town hall meetings, Kasich tells, over and over again, the story of how, as a college freshman, he managed to get a meeting with then-President Richard Nixon. He talks about helping to balance the federal budget as a congressman and focusing on Ohio's post-recession economic recovery as governor. And then he takes questions, and more questions. Sometimes his answers wade into established policy positions. Sometimes he answers a questioner with: "I don't know."

In truth, Kasich is not yet hoping to win New Hampshire outright. (Note his use of the phrase “a big story” to describe his goal out of New Hampshire, rather than saying “if I win.”) Real estate mogul Donald Trump still holds a 14- to 20-percentage-point lead over any other contender in Granite State polls.

But if Kasich can emerge as the establishment alternative to Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, he could attract donor money and mainstream GOP support in subsequent primaries and caucuses. He could contend for the GOP nomination.

To do so, Kasich first must beat established politicians Christie, Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in New Hampshire. The three are clustered within a few percentage points of each other in polls.

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Kasich has new momentum, but any of the four still have a shot at winning the mainstream GOP mantle in the Granite State. If they finish the primary close together, they’re likely to continue their fight on Feb. 20 in South Carolina and maybe beyond.

But if one of them – sure, maybe Kasich – can consolidate establishment GOP support soon enough, gathering momentum and watching his rivals dwindle, he could even win New Hampshire outright.

Yes, said Andrew Smith, director of the New Hampshire Survey Center: Someone, maybe even Kasich, could beat Trump.

"The idea that it's a fight for second place is silly," Smith said. "It's anybody's field."

He continued: "You can't know what's going on because voters haven't made up their minds yet. They make up their minds at the end because there's no reason for them to decide earlier."

Watch the GOP debate

Where: North Charleston, South Carolina.

When: Main debate at 9 p.m. on Thursday, featuring Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and John Kasich. "Kiddie table" debate at 6 p.m., featuring Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. Rand Paul qualified for the early debate but has declined to participate.

How to watch: Fox Business Network on your television or at FoxBusiness.com.