Some Republicans abandoning Matt Bevin

Some prominent Northern Kentucky Republicans have told The Enquirer they support Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jack Conway.

The bitterness among many Republicans against the tea party, which has challenged many in leadership recent years, might catch up to Republican candidate Matt Bevin, often seen as an outsider candidate who has heavy tea party support.

In particular, Bevin's nasty primary challenge of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2014 has left a sour taste in the mouths of some Republicans. They believe the lack of support for Bevin in his own party could allow Conway to win, despite Conway having to deal with President Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state.

"I think the chickens are coming home to roost," said Alexandria Republican Mike Combs, who has given $250 to Conway's campaign. "They made it such a personal attack in so many ways."

It's not just resentment over the tea party. Combs, a former Alexandria School Board member, said Bevin's support of school vouchers, which Combs opposes, also played a role in his decision to support Conway.

Some Republicans see tea party candidates as hard to work with.  "I feel like Conway will work with us and help us," said Northern Kentucky Republican donor and developer Bill Butler told the Enquirer he supports Conway. New campaign finance reports filed Thursday showed Butler gave Conway $1,000.

"My core mission is doing what we can for advancing Northern Kentucky," Butler said.

The tension between traditional Republicans and the tea party wing that includes Bevin, who won the gubernatorial nomination largely by carrying Northern Kentucky, came to the surface in the keynote speech at last month's Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce annual dinner.

Incoming chamber chairman Dave Heidrich didn't directly name vocal conservative voters and groups such as the tea party in his speech. But he called out businesses to help current elected officials get things done.

"The business community must gather around our elected officials and provide support. They need to know they can take a bold position and not be immediately defeated by a small vocal minority in the next primary," said Heidrich, a registered Republican who has held a fundraiser for Conway this year.

In  his speech, Heidrich specifically doubled down on the chamber's commitment to getting a new bridge next to the Brent Spence Bridge, a plan that the tea party opposes because the plan currently relies on tolls. The crowd of more than 500 at the dinner loudly applauded Heidrich.

Conway's campaign website lists a group of 24 leading Republicans, known as Republicans for Conway. Two locals on the list are Campbell County real estate broker Ken Perry and lawyer Michael Plummer.

Could less than complete GOP support keep Bevin from winning?

Bevin and Conway remain close in the polls, with the last Bluegrass Poll at the end of September by the Louisville Courier-Journal showing Conway leading Bevin 42 percent to 37 percent. The poll showed tepid support among their bases for both candidates, with 16 percent of registered Democrats saying they'd vote for Bevin and 15 percent of registered Republicans saying they'd vote for Conway. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

To win, Bevin needs 90 percent of the Republican vote, said Al Cross, director of the Rural Institute for Journalism and Community Issues at the University of Kentucky. So far, he's not getting that, according to the polls.

"He does have that tea party pedigree," Cross said. "That scares people off. It is not an inconsiderable factor."

Conway doesn't need as high of a percentage among his base but could run into similar problems with his party as Bevin, Cross said. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 52 percent to 39 percent in Kentucky. But many Democrats vote Republican in the conservative state and remain registered Democrat for local races, he said. Bevin could make up the difference by appealing to the 20 to 25 percent of Democrats that vote Republican, Cross said. These loosely affiliated Democrats will decide the race, Cross said.

"That is what the battle is over," Cross said. "That's why Conway has embraced the coal industry. There are a lot of these voters out in rural areas."

The lack of Republican support may be reflected in Bevin's relatively tepid fundraising.

Late last month, the Republican Governors Association pull the plug on ad spending for the Bevin campaign. Until that point, the RGA had largely been Bevin's presence on television, pouring some $3 million dollars into television advertising while Conway and the Kentucky Family Values PAC have spent millions attacking Bevin for failing to pay taxes and flip-flopping on various issues.

Bevin has spent just about 5 percent of what the political action committee has put up. Rumors were rampant that the association wanted Bevin, who spent between $13.4 and $54.9 million of his personal fortune when he ran against McConnell, to cough up some of his own money.

"The RGA is clearly unhappy that Bevin has not put up more of his own money and they probably are displeased by all the unnecessary gaffes and controversies in Bevin's campaign," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Jon Thompson, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association, said in late September the group was simply taking a breath and reevaluating the situation before making its next move. "We could very well go back up" on the air with ads, he said. He wouldn't say why the campaign has decided to stop airing ads just weeks before the election.

Bevin's campaign spokeswoman Jessica Ditto said Bevin and his running mate, Jenean Hampton, have support from Republicans, Democrats and independents.

"We are confident that this race is a dead heat," Ditto said in a statement. "We are not concerned about a few unnamed Republicans supporting Jack Conway.As our message gets out, Matt and Jenean are gaining support from Republicans, Democrats and independents alike. Everywhere Matt and Jenean go, they are connecting with voters who respond to their positive vision for a better Kentucky."

The Republicans that have turned on Bevin don't concern Fourth Congressional District GOP chairman Troy Sheldon.

"We live in America where you can support who you want," Sheldon said. "It will have minimal to no affect on us."

Kevin Sell, former Fourth District GOP Chairman, wouldn't comment on whether he would support Bevin but said the Republican Party has to deal with its fractured ranks.

"It is a tough job to be a Republican Party leader now," Sell said. "I don't know the solution."

James Pilcher of the Enquirer and Joe Gerth of the Louisville Courier-Journal contributed.