Ohio Senate race? Oh, it's on

WASHINGTON – When Ted Strickland sent out a fundraising pitch earlier this week for his yet-to-be-announced Senate campaign, the GOP response came fast and furious.

"When he ran for re-election as governor Strickland raised $20 MILLION," screeched an email missive from the Ohio Republican Party. "Can you chip in $25, $50 or more so we can fight back against Ted Strickland's millions?"

The next morning, one of GOP Sen. Rob Portman's closest political allies announced a super PAC, with a goal of raising as much as $10 million to bolster Portman's re-election campaign – and with Strickland as the main target.

All that before Strickland has even officially entered the race – and with Election Day still almost two years away. But the Buckeye State's Senate contest is going to get even more intense, and quickly.

Here is a primer on the early maneuvering – what it means, why it's important, and what to look for next.

First, the basics: Portman's term is up in 2016, and he announced in December that he would run for re-election. In January, Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld, a Democrat, said he would run and started raising money for a Senate bid. Strickland is expected to announce his plans as early as next week.

Now, here's what you need to know at this early stage:

• Strickland's possible entry into the race has the GOP on edge.

With Strickland's announcement imminent, Republicans are already in full attack mode. They have blasted his tenure as governor and highlighted his year-long stint at the Center for American Progress, a liberal advocacy group in Washington. Strickland was counselor to the group and president of an affiliated organization, twin posts that he quit this week.

"Strickland has lobbied for a liberal special interest group in Washington, DC," the Ohio GOP said in its fundraising email Tuesday.

Two hours earlier, this message from the National Republican Senatorial Committee landed in reporters' inboxes: "No matter how hard Ted Strickland tries to hide from his time at the liberal Center for American Progress, Ohioans won't forget the fact that he abandoned them as he sold out to a DC organization that opposes coal and wants to limit our Second Amendment rights."

In an interview Tuesday, Strickland sounded almost gleeful when asked about the GOP criticism. He said he was never a lobbyist, and he defended the center's work on a range of policy issues.

"I take their attacks as sort of a compliment," Strickland added. "Republicans are afraid of me."

Republicans might not put it quite so bluntly, but the party's early salvos make it clear the GOP sees Strickland's possible candidacy as a significant threat.

There are at least two reasons: The biggest hurdles in the Senate race will be fund-raising and name recognition. Strickland has those bases covered, said David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.

"Strickland has a huge (donor) network in Ohio," said Cohen. "And he's a household name among Democrats."

Republicans are not ignoring Sittenfeld. National party operatives went so far as to videotape Sittenfeld leaving a Washington fundraiser earlier this month and circulate the clip to reporters.

But at this point, the GOP seems to be treating him as more of a curiosity than a formidable foe. After Sittenfeld announced his bid last month, Portman was asked if he viewed the city councilman as a credible threat.

"I don't know," the senator said. "I don't know much (about him)."

• Democrats are nervous too – about the possibility of a divisive primary between Strickland and Sittenfeld, which could leave the victor bruised heading into a general election against Portman.

For now, the Democratic Party's line is that they will have at least two good candidates and a primary could be healthy – providing the kind of vetting that gubernatorial candidate Ed FitzGerald did not get in 2014.

"They're both good people, and they're both strong candidates," David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, said of Sittenfeld and Strickland. "They bring different things to the table."

Tim Burke, chair of the Hamilton County Democratic Party, said their respective strengths were clear: Strickland is a powerhouse fundraiser who has been tested and knows how to run a statewide campaign, while Sittenfeld "brings a new perspective, a new face, a new energy."

But, Burke said, no one wants a repeat of the 2010 Senate race, when then-Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner bloodied each other in their fight for the Democratic nomination. Portman went on to easily beat Fisher.

"It was a race that got particularly nasty," Burke said. "What I want to see is how well these guys (Sittenfeld and Strickland) are laying the groundwork for defeating Portman, not defeating each other."

He said there is already pressure on both candidates, from different camps in the party, to drop their respective bids.

"While Ted is dearly loved and there is a great deal of respect for the job he did as governor there are some folks within the party who believe it's time for others to take the stage," Burke said. There are other Democrats who believe Sittenfeld should "get out immediately after Ted announces."

Earlier this week, a Sittenfeld spokesman signaled he has no intention of dropping out. "As PG's said before, he admires Ted Strickland but is focused on his own campaign," said Ramsey Reid, his campaign manager.

Many Democratic officials assume Sittenfeld will eventually cede to Strickland, quietly predicting that it's just a question of how long he waits. But others are not so sure.

In the meantime, Sittenfeld and Strickland will be jockeying for the upper hand, in public and in private. "These two candidates are going to be out there trying to get money and trying to get endorsements and trying to get momentum," said Cohen.

• The biggest unknown in the race right now probably isn't on the Democratic side. It's whether conservatives find a candidate to challenge Portman.

Some on the right are still furious with Portman over his switch on gay marriage, which he endorsed in 2013 after learning that his son, Will, is gay.

"Join the army to help defeat Senator Portman in the 2016 primary," urged an email this week from Citizens for Community Values President Phil Burress. The email linked to a "Conservatives Against Portman" website that asks activists to sign a petition vowing to vote against the Republican senator.

But there is no alternative yet. Tom Zawistowski, an Ohio tea party leader and president of the conservative Ohio Citizens PAC, said Portman's campaign war chest and his long list of GOP endorsements have been effective in scaring off some potential candidates.

But he said Strickland's possible entry into the race is also making tea party activists and social conservatives rethink their strategy. Conservatives had hoped to oust Portman in a GOP primary and then cruise to a victory in the general election, because no big-name Democrat appeared to be in the running.

But pitting a tea party candidate against Strickland in a general election is not appealing, Zawistowski said. Instead, some activists are now floating the idea of running a conservative candidate as an independent in the general election.

The idea would not necessarily be to win, but rather to sap support from Portman and send the Republican establishment a message, he said.

"You siphon off 3 or 4 percentage points and that decides that whole thing," Zawistowski said. "It finally says to them 'We're not stupid. We're not going to let you lie to us and pay no consequences'."

So far, though, no one has signed up for that role either.

One thing is certain: With 20 months to go before Election Day, the race will only get more interesting.