Doc's TML: Do Reds have enough starting pitching?
Top o' the weird mornin' to ye, Mobsters. I'm waiting for hailstones the size of canned hams.
Slow news day. Slooooow. There are certain aspects of life I could do without. Hangovers, for example. And February, which is so bad it has now bled into March.
Reading CTR's stuff in the TM today, it becomes fairly obvious that the Club's biggest issue is starting pitching. We've obsessed on the health angle, but health is more about fate than anything, assuming those who were hurt last year rehabbed properly, and there's no reason to believe they didn't. Some years, you get 161 starts from your Big Five; others you lose your No. 3 hitter for 100 games. Assessing health outcomes is like catching smoke between your thumb and forefinger.
Pitching is anything but fate. The Reds have one great pitcher, two good ones and. . . and. . .
Cingrani and DeSclafani are the great unknowns. The former has shown signs of middle-of-the-rotation promise. The latter is cruising along the Potential Highway. And then there is Iglesias.
Not to be Dr. Doom, but Cueto is a little guy with a history of hurts, who last year threw a ton of innings and pitches. Fingers crossed.
Can The Club compete for October with that rotation?
Here's a look at the Looie rotation. Ignore the part about Shelby Miller, dealt in the Heyward trade.
Would you take Wainwright, Lynn and Lackey over Cueto/Bailey/Leake? I would, but not by much. Wainwright's old and hurt already, with an abdominal strain. At 4 and 5, they have Wacha and Martinez. Wacha was brilliant as a rookie two years ago, but an injury plagued mess last year. Martinez is hit or miss, and has spent lots of time in the bullpen. Jaime Garcia is good when healthy, which isn't often.
Pittsburgh has Liriano, Cole and Morton. Better than the Reds Big 3? Nope . Cole could be a No. 1. Liriano has been very good for MPWS, but not always consistent. Morton is eh and injury prone. They brought back AJ Burnett, who will give them innings and some stability at the back end. Meantime, they still have Jeff Locke and Vance Worley, who scare no one.
The Cubs dumped money at Jon Lester. But they were 16-under .500 last year, and were outscored by close to 100 runs. Are Lester, reacquired J. Hammel and new C M.Montero going to reverse that in one year?
Are Lester/Hammel/Jake Arrieta better than the Reds' guys? Nope. The back end contains the question marks nearly everyone has.
Milwaukee? The Crew traded sort-of ace Gallardo and Marco Estrada, and have D. Willis in for a look-see. 'Nuf said.
Not to cheer-lead or anything, but The Club is underrated, IMO. The lifeblood – starting pitching – isn't what it was last year. But it compares favorably with the rest of the division.
Your thoughts.
HERE ARE GRANTLAND'S. . .
21. Cincinnati Reds
Ah, yet another team that could rebound if a couple of key players can stay healthy. First baseman Joey Votto, having missed 100 games and looking decidedly un-Votto-like when he did play last year, is the obvious bounce-back candidate, but don't sleep on Tony Cingrani. The Reds probably did the right thing by sending starters Mat Latos (a free agent after this season and an injury concern) and Alfredo Simon (big, honking regression candidate) away in trades, opening the door for Cingrani, who was a popular breakout pick last year before seeing his ERA balloon by a run and a half. His swinging strike rate trend is headed in the wrong direction, and he's given up far too many walks and homers so far in the bigs. However, in about one full season's worth of major league play, he's fanned 190 batters in 173 innings. When Cingrani's going well, he's generating plenty of whiffs with his fastball and ample grounders with his changeup. Backed by a monstrous minor league résumé and entering his age-25 season, better results might be nigh for the Illinois native.
SMOKE FROM A DISTANT FIRE. A journeyman Tour pro said on the radio that Tiger was serving a drug suspension, not working on his chipping:
"I've heard that he's suspended. I heard he's on a month's suspension. And it's not, it's kind of a strong witness. It's a credible person that's telling me this," Olsen said Friday on the radio show. "Well, it's not testosterone, but it's something else."
Then he backtracked:
Olsen issued a retraction Monday on the web site of WVFN-AM in Lansing, Mich. "I retract the entire interview," Olsen said in a statement. "My comments were ill-advised. I want to apologize. . .
Tiger's extracurriculars have been scrutinized over the years, or at least scuttlebutted. Sometimes, muscles do get too big for the tendons and ligaments to support.
Sometimes, that results in injuries.
Still, doesn't the notion of PEDs in golf sound at least a little ridiculous?
COLLEGE BASKETBALL IS GETTING DULL . . . Good stuff from SI.com, on the lack of scoring, and how to fix it:
The more things change, the more they ... get worse. College basketball is slower, more grinding, more physical and more, well, offensive than it has been in a long, long time. The 2014-15 season is shaping up to be the worst offensive season in modern history. Through Feb. 22, teams were averaging 67.1 points per game. That is the lowest average since 1952. The previous low for that span was set just two years ago.
They suggest a 30-second clock, widening the lane and moving back the 3-point line. And this, something that has driven me nuts forever:
In January, the website Rushthecourt.net published a breakdown of the final 3 minutes, 37 seconds of a game between Indiana and Ohio State. The Buckeyes mounted a comeback and came within a buzzer-beating three-pointer of sending the game into overtime. It should have been riveting, except those last three-and-half minutes took almost 32 minutes in real time. Free throws and three replay reviews slowed down the action, but the primary reason it took so long was that the two coaches called a combined six time outs.
Even before a coach calls a single time out, he is guaranteed nine stoppages of play—four media time outs per half, which last 2 minutes, 15 seconds each, plus a 15-minute halftime. That's 33 minutes, or almost another entire game, to talk to his team. Yet, on top of those breaks, a coach is also granted four 30-second time outs and one 60-second time out. One of those 30-second time outs is referred to as the "use-it-or-lose-it" time out because teams only get to call three 30-second time outs in the second half. In other words, the rules actually incentivize a coach to call a time he out he wouldn't otherwise take.
Former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese complains that "the college game in the last two minutes is absolutely awful."
Yes, it is.
Here's another trend I don't get: How many times this winter have we seen a player drive the lane, and kick the ball out for a three attempt, rather than take the open short jumper or continue to the basket for a layup and/or a foul?
I mean, wide open twos, being forsaken for three-balls. Make sense to you?
For years, the mid-range jumper has been an endangered species. Kids weaned on AAU ball either want to shoot from 19-9 or dunk. Shooting in college basketball is bad.
That's why it's such a pleasure to watch the occasional 'Nova-XU game, like the one on Saturday, relatively unburdened with over-officiating and constant timeouts. Free-flowing, good shooting, great fun.
Can quasi-am hoops get back to that?
And finally. . . from Reddit, responding to a question about the cheapest thing you've ever seen anyone do. (Johnny Thinwallet might have a few of those.)
As a former Security manager at a bar/club and also a music venue, I would do this at the end of the night. I would usually find money ranging from a couple of dollars to 100 dollar bills. I have also found drugs, jewelry, and a whole lot of phones. I would try to return the phones by contacting someone on the person's recent call list or post a message on their facebook page. Jewelry I would turn into the General Manager and cash was fair game and usually would buy my staff drinks at the end of the shift.
Really? That many folks are careless with their money at bars?
Do you have a favorite Cheap Guy story?
TUNE O' THE DAY. The local public lending library comes through again. A solo gem from former Tom Petty keyboardist Benmont Tench. Interesting voice, kind of a cross between Warren Zevon and Petty his own self. A very solid collection. TML sez ckitout.